MMOBEYS FIFA 18 Belated Merry Christmas and a late happy Boxing Day! The holiday season is in full swing, and the FUT market was surprisingly tame. Of course there were plenty of Christmas noobs, so hopefully you snagged some nice open bids; however, EA finally dropped the Team of the Week SBCs we’ve been waiting for. So people will be selling of their investments and with these new coins buying up high end players.
Shifting focus to the Path to Glory market, players prices ebbed and flowed normally following the overall FUT market. Some players saw marked declines, and those would be the ones playing in leagues taking long winter breaks, but others rose slightly as their solid game time gives investors confidences. Now, let’s get into the specifics.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
WEEKLY RETURNS & STATS
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the PTG market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
— Quick take: Early in the week most cards saw their highs; however, before Christmas people began to liquidate. This sell off led to decreased prices due to undercutting, yet as Boxing Day dawns they seem to be stabilizing.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the PTG player’s item.
— Quick take: Across the board a very tame week for volatility, but that can be a good thing too. It means you will know when you picked up a good deal on open bids and players like Sandro Wagner and Marcus Rashford could’ve been cash cows.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of a card to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
— Quick take: Unlike volatility, players’ betas varied a lot amongst PTG players. The likes of Kingsley Coman, Rodrigo and Divock Origi could be in line for big price shifts, while Joe Hart and Leroy Sane should continue to follow the overall market trend.
TOTW Shout Dmitri Payet scored a goal and played well in Marseille last game before their winter break. That said it was a long shot at best, but, then again…
BIG WINNER- STEPHAN EL SHAARAWY (ROMA)
The silver stunner from FIFA 12, Stephan El Shaarawy, sees himself receive the Biggest Winner accolade this holiday season. A series of positive personal performances coupled with an inform already means the Roma winger has value.
Referring to his weekly statistics, has had large price range over the week (High & Low), a mild volatility (~3500) and a high negative beta (-0.74). A mild volatility fits the other items in the PTG market, but his negative beta demonstrates that one should expect some sizable price shifts in the opposite of the market. We’ll have to keep an eye on the beta as the market looks to be stabilizing and dare I say turning.
Taking a step back, another upgrade makes the five star skiller a very attractive option; however, the price at the moment might be a little overvalued.
BIG LOSER- LARS STINDL (BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH)
This mans Team of the Season last year was a GOD; however, as a Fiorentina fan, I am nothing if not subtly glad Lars Stindl finds himself as a Biggest Loser. The utility man from Gladbach is not a loser because of his personal performance, but rather an example of people weary of the long Bundesliga break.
Besides a large Weekly loss, Stindl also sported a high volatility relative to his price and a negative beta similar to El Shaarawy. Evident by his volatility, this item has seen a lot of fluctuation over the week so if you timed it right take your profit. Yet, looking forward his price should stabilize which might be a good investment look.
Look at Stindl’s history, he seems to put in quality performances in the second half of the season so watch this space.
The best part of the holiday season is all the football! So enjoy yourself and watch to your heart’s desire. We will pick this back up next week.
To wrap it up, it was a tame but rather interesting holiday week. The FUT market took a dip right before Christmas but now it’s starting to stabilize and rise. The PTG market is right there with it, but the upgrade potential should be monitored by all investors.
Leave any input below, and look out for a Ones To Watch update soon!